FNUS75 KGJT 272201
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ENSCARPMENT...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 PM MDT WED JUN 27 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1543 MDT ON JUNE 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
RADAR SHOWED A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NEAR THE FIRE FROM THE SW AT
345 PM MDT. MORE STORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE FIRE SITE TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL
STORMS WILL PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN.

.THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92-95 F STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH WITH STRONG GUSTS TO 40-50
                    MPH POSSIBLE AS STORMS APPROACH FROM THE
                    SOUTHWEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    2-5 MPH BUT WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS STILL
                     POSSIBLE FROM ISOLATED STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................4 UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN 2.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO POOR (2000 KNOT-FT)
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-94 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST-EAST 2-5 MPH BECOMING CALM BY 0900.
                    THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 5-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
                    ERRATIC GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11000 FT AGL IN
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.



$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...COLTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120627.ENSCA.01/GJT