FNUS75 KGJT 280524
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE RIDGE...BLM GRAND JUNCTION DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1124 PM MDT WED JUN 27 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2112 MDT ON JUNE 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS...BUT LITTLE RAIN. WHILE BETTER COVERAGE OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WILL STILL BE
EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE FROM THE DISTANT CONVECTION...OR FROM
NEARBY VIRGA. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST.

.THURSDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-94 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...
                    THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY. AFTER 1200...
                    SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    AT TIMES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...OUTFLOW
                    WINDS FROM DISTANT CONVECTION WITH GUSTS IN
                    EXCESS OF 25 MPH MAY IMPACT THE FIRE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING TO EXCELLENT
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    13900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 17 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........33-38%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. AT TIMES UNTIL
                    AROUND MIDNIGHT...OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    FROM DISTANT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE FIRE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GENERALLY POOR...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS
                    IF GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH...EXCEPT DURING
                    PERIODS OF OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN THEY WILL
                    DOMINATE.


$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120627.PINER.01/GJT