FNUS75 KGJT 290101
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LIGHTNER CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
701 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1758 MDT ON JUNE 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AND ON
FRIDAY...IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE BURN SITE. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER NEARBY
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING MAY STILL ALLOW A FEW STRONGER GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO AT TIMES
                    THIS EVENING...STRONGER OUTFLOW GUSTS TO
                    25 MPH FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD BUT DISTANT
                    CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST MAY REACH THE FIRE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING POOR AROUND
                    SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 (LAL 6 OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST).
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN DECREASING TO
                    1500 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST-SOUTHWEST 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 10 MPH
                    AFTER SUNSET.


.FRIDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS
                    POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN IMPROVING TO VERY
                    GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...DAVIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120628.LIGHT.01/GJT