FNUS75 KBOU 012324 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HIGH PARK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 510 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EAST MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT APPEARS TOO DRY FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM WESTERLY MONDAY MORNING TO EASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-62. MAX HUMIDITY........38-41%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST/NORTHWEST 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW DRY AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-91. MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-12 MPH UNTIL 0700...THEN NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1200... THEN EAST/SOUTHWEST 7-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 12600-13600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400 THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-61. MAX HUMIDITY........40-44%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW DRY AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-88. MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 13000-13800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HIGH PARK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/01-17 58 15 3 84 14 SE13 20 5 3 W12 13154 SW 8 87493 G 07/01-18 51 10 2 83 15 SE13 20 5 2 W12 11869 SW 8 81024 G 07/01-19 51 10 2 81 17 S12 18 5 2 W12 8080 SW 9 55765 F 07/01-20 51 10 2 79 20 S10 16 5 2 W12 4290 S10 30505 P 07/01-21 51 7 2 74 24 S 8 13 5 2 W12 501 S12 5246 P 07/01-22 51 7 2 70 28 S 7 7 5 2 W12 402 S10 3912 P 07/01-23 51 7 2 67 30 S 6 6 5 2 W12 303 S 9 2578 P 07/02-00 47 0 0 64 31 SW 5 5 5 1 W10 204 S 7 1244 P 07/02-01 47 0 0 63 32 SW 5 5 5 1 W 9 185 SW 6 1026 P 07/02-02 47 0 0 62 33 W 5 5 5 1 SW 7 167 W 6 808 P 07/02-03 42 0 0 61 34 W 5 5 5 1 SW 6 148 W 5 590 P 07/02-04 42 0 0 60 36 W 7 7 5 1 SW 7 139 W 6 710 P 07/02-05 42 0 0 59 37 W 8 14 5 1 SW 8 131 W 8 829 P 07/02-06 47 0 0 59 38 W 9 15 5 1 SW 9 122 W 9 949 P 07/02-07 47 0 0 62 35 W 7 7 5 1 SW12 3493 W 8 14104 P 07/02-08 47 0 0 70 25 NW 5 5 5 1 SW13 6865 W 6 27260 P 07/02-09 49 12 2 79 18 NW 2 2 5 1 SW14 10236 W 5 40416 F 07/02-10 49 12 2 82 16 N 2 2 5 1 SW12 11556 W 3 39181 P 07/02-11 49 12 2 83 15 NE 5 5 5 1 SW 9 12875 SW 3 37947 P 07/02-12 59 25 5 84 15 E 6 6 5 3 SW 6 14195 S 3 36713 P 07/02-13 59 25 5 82 16 E 6 6 5 3 SW 6 13972 S 3 38867 P 07/02-14 59 25 5 84 15 E 7 7 4 3 SW 6 13748 S 3 41020 F 07/02-15 59 29 8 84 16 E 7 7 4 3 SW 7 13524 S 3 43174 F 07/02-16 59 29 8 83 17 E 8 8 4 3 SW 8 12859 S 5 47476 F 07/02-17 59 29 8 82 18 SE 8 13 4 3 W10 12193 S 5 51779 F 07/02-18 66 20 4 81 19 SE 8 13 4 3 W12 11425 S 6 55379 F 07/02-19 66 20 4 79 21 SE 6 6 4 3 W12 7907 S 7 38940 P 07/02-20 66 20 4 75 24 S 5 5 4 3 W12 4389 S 7 22501 P 07/02-21 66 20 4 71 28 S 3 3 4 3 W12 871 S 8 6062 P 07/02-22 66 20 4 68 31 S 3 3 4 3 SW13 654 S 7 4449 P 07/02-23 66 20 4 67 33 SW 3 3 5 3 SW13 437 S 7 2836 P 07/03-00 46 0 0 65 36 SW 5 5 5 1 SW13 221 S 7 1222 P 07/03-01 46 0 0 63 38 SW 5 5 5 1 W13 204 S 7 1176 P 07/03-02 46 0 0 62 41 SW 6 6 5 1 W14 187 SW 7 1129 P 07/03-03 46 0 0 60 44 SW 6 6 5 1 W14 170 SW 7 1082 P 07/03-04 46 0 0 59 45 SW 7 7 5 1 W13 156 SW 8 1050 P 07/03-05 46 0 0 59 46 W 9 14 5 1 W10 142 SW 8 1018 P 07/03-06 38 0 0 59 45 W 9 15 5 1 W 9 128 W 9 985 P 07/03-07 38 0 0 62 40 W 7 7 5 1 SW 8 345 W 7 1287 P 07/03-08 38 0 0 67 33 SW 5 5 5 1 SW 7 561 W 5 1588 P 07/03-09 38 0 0 72 27 SW 2 2 5 1 S 7 778 W 2 1890 P 07/03-10 38 0 0 76 23 S 2 2 5 1 SW 8 4830 SW 3 23529 P 07/03-11 38 0 0 80 20 SE 3 3 5 1 SW 9 8883 SW 5 45168 F 07/03-12 61 20 4 82 18 E 5 5 5 3 SW12 12936 SW 6 66807 G 07/03-13 61 20 4 83 18 E 5 5 5 3 SW14 13195 SW 7 81908 G 07/03-14 61 20 4 84 17 E 5 5 4 3 W16 13454 SW 8 97010 G 07/03-15 61 20 4 85 17 SE 5 5 4 3 W18 13714 W 9 112112 V 07/03-16 61 20 4 85 17 SE 6 6 4 3 W18 13382 W 9 111610 V 07/03-17 61 20 4 84 17 SE 7 7 5 3 W20 13051 W10 111109 V 07/03-18 62 20 4 83 18 SE 7 7 5 3 W18 12720 W10 110608 V 07/03-19 62 20 4 80 20 SE 6 6 5 3 W17 8599 SW 8 74342 G 07/03-20 62 20 4 76 24 S 5 5 5 3 W15 4478 SW 7 38077 P 07/03-21 62 20 4 71 28 S 3 3 5 3 W13 357 S 6 1812 P 07/03-22 62 20 4 68 32 SW 3 3 5 3 W10 295 SW 6 1469 P 07/03-23 62 20 4 66 34 SW 5 5 5 3 W 7 232 SW 6 1127 P 07/04-00 19 0 0 64 36 W 6 6 5 1 W 5 170 W 6 784 P 07/04-01 19 0 0 63 38 W 7 7 5 1 W 5 160 W 6 805 P 07/04-02 19 0 0 61 40 W 7 7 5 1 SW 7 149 W 7 826 P 07/04-03 19 0 0 59 41 W 8 13 5 1 S 8 139 W 7 847 P 07/04-04 19 0 0 58 41 W 8 14 5 1 S 9 143 W 8 963 P 07/04-05 19 0 0 58 39 W 9 14 5 1 S12 146 NW 8 1078 P 07/04-06 19 7 1 58 37 NW 9 15 5 1 S13 149 NW 9 1194 P 07/04-07 19 7 1 61 33 NW 9 15 5 1 S14 894 NW 8 4179 P 07/04-08 19 7 1 66 28 N 9 15 5 1 S14 1638 N 7 7164 P 07/04-09 19 7 1 71 23 NE 9 15 5 1 S14 2383 NE 5 10150 P 07/04-10 19 7 1 76 20 NE 9 15 5 1 S14 6071 E 6 39678 P 07/04-11 19 7 1 80 18 E10 16 4 1 S13 9760 SE 7 69207 G 07/04-12 57 20 4 82 17 E10 16 4 3 S12 13448 S 8 98735 G 07/04-13 57 20 4 83 16 E10 17 4 3 S12 13751 S 9 107992 V 07/04-14 57 20 4 84 16 E12 17 4 3 S12 14054 S 9 117249 V 07/04-15 57 20 4 85 17 E12 18 4 3 S12 14357 S10 126505 V 07/04-16 57 20 4 85 17 SE13 20 4 3 S12 13846 S10 125080 V 07/04-17 57 20 4 84 19 SE13 21 3 3 S10 13335 S10 123655 V 07/04-18 63 23 5 83 21 SE13 21 3 3 S10 12824 S12 122229 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120701.HIGHP.01/BOU