FNUS75 KBYZ 011729
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH CREEK FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1128 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1107 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS AT THE SITE TODAY WILL BE VERY HOT WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE SITE AROUND 900 PM. EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
FROM 40 TO 50 MPH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. BRS

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
                    WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....96-103.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH BY MID-AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
                    WIND GUSTS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE EVENING DECREASING
                    TO 15 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE MORNING SHIFTING
                    TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...HUMPHREY/SCHUKNECHT
REQUESTED BY...BYRON BONNEY-FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120701.ASHCR.01/BYZ