FNUS75 KBYZ 020110
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH CREEK FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
710 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1848 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FIRE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...A FEW POSSIBLY
SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
HUMIDITIES WILL RISE BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND BETTER
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60
PERCENT RANGE. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S AT THE FIRE SITE. THIS WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON RH'S TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
CWR.................12 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....96-103.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN
                    THE EVENING.
CWR.................17 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-94.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST 1O TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...RICHMOND
REQUESTED BY...MIKE POWELL -FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120701.ASHCR.02/BYZ