FNUS75 KBYZ 020147
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASH CREEK FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
747 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1848 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FIRE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...A FEW COULD BE
SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM. HUMIDITIES WILL RISE BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AND BETTER RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED WITH READINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60 PERCENT RANGE. WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S AT THE FIRE
SITE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH'S TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15
MPH THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON TUESDAY AS GOOD MIXING WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
IN THE UPPER 90S WITH RH'S DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY EVENING
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN
                    THE EVENING.
CWR.................17 PERCENT.
LAL.................3...9 TO 15 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1...NO THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-92.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
 RIDGETOP...........NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
 RIDGETOP...........EAST 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92-99.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...RICHMOND
REQUESTED BY...MIKE POWELL -FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120701.ASHCR.02/BYZ