FNUS75 KGJT 011609
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR HD-4...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1009 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0903 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE FIRE SITE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT
LIMITED RAINFALL. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT TO FIRE
PERSONNEL...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY CAUSING ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS.
LASTLY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES AND REACH THE FIRE SITE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY MORNING (0-10%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%) WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE
                    AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 50 MPH
                    POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY EVENING (70-80%) WITH ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%)
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........39-44%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 5 MPH
                    AFTER 2200. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 50 MPH
                    POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR IN THE LATE EVENING
                    AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
                    AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO
                    50 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000-15900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE CHAMBERLAIN
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120701.HD4__.01/GJT