FNUS72 KMHX 011933 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR DAD FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 333 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1517 EDT ON JULY 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH...BECOMING EAST 10 TO 14 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............34 61 59 56 54 51 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC TEMP................93 88 84 81 80 78 RH..................58 70 78 79 82 87 20 FT WIND..........SW 8 SW 7 SW 6 SW 6 SW 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 LVORI...............1 3 3 4 4 5 ADI.................38 29 37 26 14 11 HAINES INDEX........4 3 4 4 5 5 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............49 47 50 54 57 57 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE TEMP................78 81 88 92 94 94 RH..................87 82 66 57 53 55 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 10 LVORI...............5 4 3 2 2 2 ADI.................7 5 6 22 23 19 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 4 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............58 56 73 78 77 73 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................91 84 82 80 78 76 RH..................60 73 81 88 94 94 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............2 4 4 6 6 6 ADI.................18 11 9 5 7 4 HAINES INDEX........4 3 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 6300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............70 65 58 55 51 58 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............CHANCE S CHC S CHC TEMP................76 79 84 89 92 93 RH..................93 87 72 60 55 54 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 SW 3 SW 4 SW 4 SW 4 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 10 LVORI...............7 6 3 2 1 1 ADI.................2 2 6 30 47 48 HAINES INDEX........4 5 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...MERRELL REQUESTED BY...CROATAN OPERATIONS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120701.DADFI.01/MHX