FNUS75 KMSO 011824
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR PONY FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1224 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1140 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE NOTABLE INCREASING TREND IN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 2 TO 3 HOURS AS AMPLE SUNSHINE HELPS TO
ELIMINATE REMAINING NEAR SURFACE STABILITY. WE ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FIRE BY 1500 MDT AND REMAIN A
THREAT THROUGH AROUND 2000 MDT. RECOVERY SHOULD BE BETTER TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A SEASONABLY WARM DAY MONDAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TUESDAY
COULD YIELD YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE FIRE.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 3-6 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 6-13 MPH
                    WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWN SLOPE/DOWN VALLEY 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-5 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 6-12 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

$$

FORECASTER...DICKERSON
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120701.PONYF.07/MSO