FNUS75 KMSO 031729
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR PONY FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1129 AM MDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1140 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE FIRE VERY CLOSE
TO NOON, IF NOT RIGHT BEFORE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY
WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN
OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ELEVATION AND WEST ASPECT
OF THE FIRE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL, THOUGH A FEW
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER. DESPITE THIS, THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE FIRE TODAY WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS. WINDS WILL DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78-83.
RH..................MIN 12-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST BECOMING WEST 15-25 MPH. GUSTS
                    UP TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING CLEAR.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43-50.
RH..................MAX 53-58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 11-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70-78.
RH..................MIN 15-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5-12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...ALLEGRETTO
REQUESTED BY...FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120701.PONYF.07/MSO