FNUS75 KRIW 012142 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEX CREEK...USFS SHF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 342 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1519 MDT ON JULY 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY... .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AROUND THE FIRE SITE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 1900 AND 2100 TURNING WIND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON KEEPING FIRE WEATHER THREAT HIGH. TUESDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...BERC .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45. MAX HUMIDITY........76-79 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH BY 2000 BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AFTER 2300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8300-9300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400-3400 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 29 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (214900 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR (53900 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75. MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 11 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 1600. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-6100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10200-11200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 17 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (88100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (196500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH. .INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...BERC REQUESTED BY...CODY DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120701.INDEX.01/RIW