FNUS73 KUNR 010734
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR OIL CREEK...WYOMING STATE FORESTRY DIVISION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
134 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0105 MDT ON JULY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING WILL BE UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND MONTANA TODAY...BRINGING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH...AND HIGHS
NEAR 100 DEGREES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN IS
EXPECTED. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE BURN AREA AROUND 300 AM MDT MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO WILL
INCREASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPER 90S ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 99.
RH..................MIN 14-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO
                    18 MPH BY LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 11 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 TO 14000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 65.
RH..................MAX 65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
                    20 MPH AROUND 300 AM MDT.
CWR.................11 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 TO 2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO FAIR.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 92-95.
RH..................MIN 19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 TO 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 13
                    TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MB
REQUESTED BY...PLANNING SECTION CHIEF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120701.OILCR.01/UNR