FNUS75 KBOU 022252 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FLAGSTAFF...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 440 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STILL PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-60. MAX HUMIDITY........57-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-10 MPH UNTIL 2000 THEN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-88. MIN HUMIDITY........16-22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 12200-13200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-61. MAX HUMIDITY........45-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2000 THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......13600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0500. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .INDEPENDENCE DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1000 UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-88. MIN HUMIDITY........16-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10400-11400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FLAGSTAFF. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/02-16 69 28 8 81 19 N 6 6 4 4 SW 3 12326 CALM 15705 P 07/02-17 69 28 8 80 20 NW 5 5 4 4 S 3 11795 CALM 16583 P 07/02-18 66 24 5 78 22 W 3 3 4 3 S 5 11263 SW 2 17460 P 07/02-19 66 24 5 76 25 W 3 3 4 3 S 7 7621 SW 2 12133 P 07/02-20 66 24 5 71 31 W 5 5 4 3 S 9 3979 W 3 6807 P 07/02-21 66 24 5 66 38 W 6 6 4 3 S13 337 W 5 1480 P 07/02-22 66 24 5 63 43 W 5 5 4 3 S15 311 W 5 1234 P 07/02-23 66 24 5 62 47 SW 3 3 4 3 SW17 285 S 3 989 P 07/03-00 46 3 1 60 50 S 3 3 4 1 SW18 259 S 3 744 P 07/03-01 46 3 1 60 50 S 5 5 4 1 W16 238 S 3 782 P 07/03-02 46 3 1 58 51 S 6 6 4 1 W14 217 SW 5 820 P 07/03-03 46 3 1 58 50 S 7 7 4 1 W12 196 SW 5 858 P 07/03-04 46 3 1 58 51 S 8 13 4 1 W 9 173 SW 6 782 P 07/03-05 46 3 1 58 51 SW 8 13 4 1 W 8 150 SW 6 705 P 07/03-06 45 0 0 57 52 SW 8 13 4 1 W 7 127 W 6 629 P 07/03-07 45 0 0 65 39 SW 7 7 4 1 W 5 3056 SW 5 4941 P 07/03-08 45 0 0 73 29 SW 6 6 4 1 W 3 5984 SW 3 9253 P 07/03-09 45 4 1 78 24 SW 5 5 4 1 SW 2 8912 SW 2 13566 P 07/03-10 45 4 1 81 21 S 5 5 4 1 W 2 10420 SW 2 18254 P 07/03-11 45 4 1 83 19 SE 6 6 4 1 W 3 11927 S 2 22942 P 07/03-12 63 19 4 84 18 SE 7 7 4 3 W 5 13434 S 2 27630 P 07/03-13 63 19 4 85 17 E 7 7 4 3 W 6 13093 S 2 30718 P 07/03-14 63 19 4 86 17 E 7 7 3 3 W 8 12752 SW 3 33807 P 07/03-15 68 29 8 84 18 E 7 7 3 4 W 9 12411 SW 3 36896 P 07/03-16 68 29 8 84 18 SE 7 7 3 4 SW 7 12808 SW 3 38877 P 07/03-17 68 29 8 83 18 S 7 7 4 4 S 5 13206 SW 3 40858 F 07/03-18 62 20 4 86 16 S 7 7 4 3 S 2 13603 SW 3 42839 F 07/03-19 62 20 4 86 17 S 7 7 4 3 CALM 9888 S 5 33187 P 07/03-20 62 20 4 81 20 S 7 7 4 3 CALM 6173 S 6 23534 P 07/03-21 62 20 4 76 26 S 7 7 4 3 SE 2 2458 S 7 13881 P 07/03-22 62 20 4 73 30 S 7 7 4 3 NW 9 2441 S 7 13190 P 07/03-23 62 20 4 71 33 S 7 7 4 3 NW 9 1626 SW 7 9286 P 07/04-00 57 0 0 69 36 S 7 7 4 1 N 8 811 SW 8 5382 P 07/04-01 57 0 0 67 39 SW 6 6 4 1 N 8 617 SW 7 4027 P 07/04-02 57 0 0 65 41 SW 5 5 4 1 NE 7 424 W 7 2671 P 07/04-03 57 0 0 64 42 SW 5 5 4 1 NE 6 231 W 7 1315 P 07/04-04 57 0 0 62 43 W 5 5 4 1 E 6 220 W 7 1231 P 07/04-05 57 0 0 62 42 NW 6 6 3 1 SE 5 209 W 6 1148 P 07/04-06 39 0 0 62 40 N 7 7 3 1 SE 5 198 W 6 1064 P 07/04-07 39 0 0 65 35 N 8 8 3 1 SE 5 1097 NW 7 6757 P 07/04-08 39 0 0 69 29 N 8 13 3 1 S 6 1996 N 7 12450 P 07/04-09 39 0 0 74 24 N 8 13 3 1 S 7 2894 NE 7 18143 P 07/04-10 39 10 2 78 20 N 8 13 3 2 S 7 5352 NE 7 35561 P 07/04-11 39 10 2 82 18 NE 7 7 3 2 S 8 7810 E 8 52980 F 07/04-12 77 10 2 84 17 NE 7 7 3 2 S 9 10268 E 8 70399 G 07/04-13 77 10 2 85 16 NE 7 7 3 2 S 9 10720 SE 8 76136 G 07/04-14 77 30 9 86 16 E 7 7 3 4 S10 11172 SE 8 81873 G 07/04-15 77 30 9 86 17 E 7 7 3 4 S10 11624 SE 9 87609 G 07/04-16 77 30 9 87 18 E 7 7 3 4 S10 11211 SE 9 88859 G 07/04-17 77 30 9 86 19 E 6 6 3 4 S10 10797 SE 9 90108 G 07/04-18 80 30 9 84 21 E 6 6 3 4 S12 10384 SE10 91357 G 07/04-19 80 30 9 82 24 E 5 5 3 4 S14 8279 SE 8 64285 G 07/04-20 80 30 9 78 28 E 5 5 3 4 S17 6174 E 6 37213 P 07/04-21 80 30 9 73 33 E 3 3 3 4 S21 4069 E 2 10140 P 07/04-22 80 30 9 70 38 E 2 2 3 4 S24 3169 NE 3 8654 P 07/04-23 80 30 9 69 41 SE 2 2 3 4 S28 2269 N 5 7167 P 07/05-00 62 10 2 67 44 SE 2 2 3 2 S30 1369 NW 5 5680 P 07/05-01 62 10 2 65 47 S 2 2 3 2 S29 1040 NW 5 4282 P 07/05-02 62 10 2 63 50 S 3 3 3 2 SW25 711 W 5 2884 P 07/05-03 62 10 2 62 53 SW 3 3 3 2 SW23 382 W 5 1487 P 07/05-04 62 10 2 61 55 SW 3 3 3 2 SW20 373 W 5 1526 P 07/05-05 62 10 2 61 55 SW 5 5 3 2 SW17 363 W 5 1565 P 07/05-06 44 10 2 61 54 W 5 5 3 2 SW15 354 W 6 1604 P 07/05-07 44 10 2 63 48 SW 5 5 3 2 SW14 1681 SW 5 6775 P 07/05-08 44 10 2 68 38 S 5 5 3 2 SW13 3008 SW 5 11946 P 07/05-09 44 16 3 74 31 S 5 5 3 3 SW13 4335 S 5 17117 P 07/05-10 44 16 3 78 25 S 5 5 3 3 SW12 6249 S 3 18701 P 07/05-11 44 16 3 82 22 SE 3 3 3 3 SW10 8162 S 3 20285 P 07/05-12 77 40 18 84 21 E 3 3 3 4 SW 9 10076 S 2 21869 P 07/05-13 77 40 18 85 20 SE 3 3 3 4 SW 8 10714 S 2 25626 P 07/05-14 77 40 18 86 19 SE 2 2 3 4 SW 8 11352 S 3 29382 P 07/05-15 77 40 18 87 19 SE 2 2 3 4 SW 7 11991 S 3 33138 P 07/05-16 77 40 18 87 20 S 2 2 3 4 S 6 10998 S 2 27923 P 07/05-17 77 40 18 86 22 CALM 1 3 4 S 6 10005 S 2 22708 P 07/05-18 80 36 14 82 26 CALM 1 3 4 S 5 9012 SE 2 17493 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MIKE FRARY - FBAN REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120702.FLAGS.01/BOU