FNUS75 KBOU 021912 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SPEARHEAD...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 111 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STILL PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN SHOWERS...BUT A FEW CELLS COULD PRODUCE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1430 THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-67. MIN HUMIDITY........20-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10800-11800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-46. MAX HUMIDITY........54-57%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72. MIN HUMIDITY........16-18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 12400-13200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SPEARHEAD. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/02-13 70 41 18 66 24 SW 2 2 4 3 SW15 11818 S 5 41382 F 07/02-14 70 41 18 67 25 S 6 6 4 3 SW16 11898 S 3 41611 F 07/02-15 70 41 18 67 26 SE 7 7 4 3 W17 11978 S 3 41840 F 07/02-16 70 41 18 66 27 SE 6 6 4 3 W16 11258 S 5 40356 F 07/02-17 70 41 18 64 29 SE 3 3 4 3 W16 10538 S 5 38873 P 07/02-18 60 33 12 64 30 CALM 1 4 3 W16 9819 S 5 37389 P 07/02-19 60 33 12 61 34 CALM 1 4 3 W16 6633 S 5 25179 P 07/02-20 60 33 12 57 39 SW 2 2 4 3 W17 3447 SW 3 12968 P 07/02-21 60 33 12 54 45 SW 3 3 4 3 W18 260 SW 3 758 P 07/02-22 60 33 12 51 50 SW 3 3 4 3 W17 266 SW 3 764 P 07/02-23 60 33 12 49 53 SW 2 2 4 3 W16 272 S 3 770 P 07/03-00 45 2 0 49 54 SW 2 2 4 1 W15 278 S 3 776 P 07/03-01 45 2 0 48 55 SW 2 2 4 1 W14 268 S 3 902 P 07/03-02 45 2 0 47 55 SW 3 3 4 1 W14 259 SW 5 1028 P 07/03-03 45 2 0 46 57 W 5 5 4 1 W13 249 SW 6 1154 P 07/03-04 45 2 0 46 57 W 6 6 4 1 W13 243 SW 6 1260 P 07/03-05 45 2 0 45 57 W 6 6 4 1 SW13 237 W 7 1367 P 07/03-06 38 0 0 46 53 W 7 7 4 1 SW14 232 W 7 1474 P 07/03-07 38 0 0 48 46 W 7 7 4 1 SW13 611 W 7 3818 P 07/03-08 38 0 0 53 35 W 7 7 4 1 SW13 990 W 7 6162 P 07/03-09 38 0 0 58 28 W 7 7 4 1 SW13 1369 W 7 8506 P 07/03-10 38 0 0 63 23 SW 6 6 4 1 SW12 5045 W 7 33883 P 07/03-11 38 0 0 66 20 SW 6 6 4 1 SW12 8721 SW 8 59259 F 07/03-12 66 30 9 68 19 S 5 5 4 4 SW13 12396 SW 8 84635 G 07/03-13 66 30 9 69 18 S 5 5 4 4 SW15 12685 SW 9 97885 G 07/03-14 66 30 9 70 18 S 6 6 4 4 W17 12974 W10 111134 V 07/03-15 66 30 9 71 18 S 6 6 4 4 W18 13263 W10 124384 V 07/03-16 66 30 9 71 18 S 6 6 4 4 W18 12957 W10 120065 V 07/03-17 66 30 9 70 19 SW 7 7 4 4 W17 12652 W10 115746 V 07/03-18 62 20 4 69 20 SW 7 7 4 4 W15 12347 W10 111427 V 07/03-19 62 20 4 67 22 SW 7 7 4 4 W14 8314 W 9 74812 G 07/03-20 62 20 4 63 26 SW 7 7 4 4 W12 4280 SW 8 38196 P 07/03-21 62 20 4 58 31 SW 7 7 4 4 W10 246 SW 7 1581 P 07/03-22 62 20 4 55 35 SW 6 6 4 4 W 8 242 SW 7 1385 P 07/03-23 62 20 4 54 37 W 6 6 4 4 NW 6 237 SW 6 1190 P 07/04-00 44 0 0 52 40 W 5 5 4 1 NW 5 232 W 5 994 P 07/04-01 44 0 0 50 42 W 5 5 4 1 W 3 225 W 6 1026 P 07/04-02 44 0 0 49 44 W 6 6 4 1 SW 2 218 W 6 1059 P 07/04-03 44 0 0 47 45 NW 6 6 4 1 SW 3 210 NW 6 1092 P 07/04-04 44 0 0 46 46 NW 6 6 4 1 SW 7 214 NW 7 1184 P 07/04-05 44 0 0 46 45 N 7 7 4 1 S10 218 N 7 1276 P 07/04-06 38 0 0 46 43 N 7 7 4 1 S14 222 N 7 1368 P 07/04-07 38 0 0 48 38 N 6 6 4 1 S16 280 N 6 1382 P 07/04-08 38 0 0 52 32 NE 5 5 4 1 S16 337 NE 5 1396 P 07/04-09 38 0 0 56 27 NE 5 5 4 1 S16 394 NE 5 1410 P 07/04-10 38 0 0 60 23 E 6 6 4 1 S15 3784 E 6 25371 P 07/04-11 38 0 0 63 21 E 7 7 4 1 S15 7173 SE 7 49332 F 07/04-12 77 30 9 64 20 E 8 8 4 4 S15 10563 SE 8 73293 G 07/04-13 77 30 9 66 19 E 9 9 4 4 S15 10730 SE 9 82008 G 07/04-14 77 30 9 66 20 E 9 9 3 4 S15 10897 S 9 90723 G 07/04-15 77 30 9 67 20 SE 9 9 3 4 S16 11063 S10 99438 G 07/04-16 77 30 9 67 22 SE 9 9 3 4 S18 10750 S12 103097 V 07/04-17 77 30 9 66 24 SE 8 8 3 4 S21 10436 S12 106756 V 07/04-18 78 30 9 65 27 SE 8 8 3 4 S22 10123 S13 110415 V 07/04-19 78 30 9 63 30 SE 8 8 3 4 S24 6870 S12 74447 G 07/04-20 78 30 9 59 35 SE 7 7 3 4 SW25 3618 SE 9 38479 P 07/04-21 78 30 9 55 41 SE 7 7 3 4 SW25 366 SE 8 2511 P 07/04-22 78 30 9 53 46 SE 7 7 3 4 SW23 316 SE 8 2151 P 07/04-23 78 30 9 51 50 S 7 7 3 4 SW20 266 S 8 1792 P 07/05-00 50 20 4 49 54 S 7 7 3 3 SW16 217 S 8 1432 P 07/05-01 50 20 4 48 57 S 7 7 3 3 SW14 226 S 8 1501 P 07/05-02 50 20 4 47 61 S 7 7 3 3 W12 236 S 8 1570 P 07/05-03 50 20 4 45 65 S 7 7 3 3 W 9 246 S 8 1639 P 07/05-04 50 20 4 44 68 S 6 6 3 3 NW 6 240 S 7 1434 P 07/05-05 50 20 4 44 69 SW 6 6 3 3 NE 3 234 SW 6 1229 P 07/05-06 48 5 1 44 69 W 5 5 3 1 CALM 229 W 5 1024 P 07/05-07 48 5 1 46 61 SW 5 5 1 07/05-08 48 5 1 51 49 S 3 3 1 07/05-09 48 5 1 56 40 S 3 3 1 07/05-10 48 5 1 60 34 S 3 3 1 07/05-11 48 5 1 63 30 SE 2 2 1 07/05-12 77 34 13 65 28 E 2 2 4 07/05-13 77 34 13 66 27 E 2 2 4 07/05-14 77 34 13 67 27 SE 2 2 4 07/05-15 77 34 13 67 27 SE 2 2 4 07/05-16 77 34 13 68 28 SE 2 2 4 07/05-17 77 34 13 67 30 SE 2 2 4 07/05-18 77 34 13 66 32 SE 2 2 4 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...RANDY BIDDLE REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20120702.SPEAR.02/BOU