FNUS74 KEPZ 030217
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR LITTLE BEAR...STATE OF NEW MEXICO FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
817 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1938 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR THE FIRST REAL SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE STARTING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY.
RATHER QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AND BECOMING TERRAIN-DRIVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERING
TO AROUND 70 PERCENT. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLOW MOVING STORMS TOMORROW COULD
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BURN SCARS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    AN EVENIG SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
CWR.................10 PERCENT TIL MMIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH TIL MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING LIGHT
                    AND MAINLY DOWNSLOPE.


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT EARLY...THEN SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION.........FAIR (56000 KNOT-FT).


$$
FORECASTER...PARK
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120702.LITTL.01/EPZ