FNUS71 KLWX 021833 FWSLWX SPOT FORECAST FOR NEIGHBOR MOUNTAIN FIRE...RED TEAM - NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 233 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1414 EDT ON JULY 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST IS FOR AN ELEVATION NEAR 1500 FEET. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RH VALUES TO BE A BIT LOWER AND THE RIDGE TOPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER CAUSING RH VALUES TO BE A BIT HIGHER. LATEST SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS SUPPRESSED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. A SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......7200-9000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........49 49 50 50 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW TEMP............86 87 87 87 RH..............45 43 42 42 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 15 CWR.............20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6900-8800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........50 49 44 42 42 47 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............84 82 78 75 73 71 RH..............49 55 62 66 71 73 20 FT WIND......N 5 N 2 E 2 SE 2 S 2 SW 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 5 CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 7500-9400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 10300-10500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 7900 FT AGL LATE...DECREASING TO 4500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........49 50 51 52 54 54 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............71 74 80 85 87 88 RH..............76 74 60 50 46 43 20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 SW 3 SW 2 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 CWR.............20 20 20 20 30 30 $$ FORECASTER...LASORSA REQUESTED BY...MARK CLERE FBAN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120702.NEIGH.02/LWX