FNUS71 KLWX 021935 FWSLWX SPOT FORECAST FOR NEIGHBOR MOUNTAIN FIRE...RED TEAM - NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 335 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1414 EDT ON JULY 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...THEREFORE THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF T-STORMS IS LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR T-STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING... THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 10300-10500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........49 50 51 52 54 54 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............71 74 80 85 87 88 RH..............76 74 60 50 46 43 20 FT WIND......SW 2 SW 2 SW 2 SW 3 SW 2 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 CWR.............20 20 20 20 30 30 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT... THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................30 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 200-500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........54 54 58 63 67 72 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............87 83 80 78 76 75 RH..............48 59 65 67 71 71 20 FT WIND......S 4 S 3 SW 3 SW 3 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 CWR.............30 40 40 40 20 20 .INDEPENDENCE DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 17 TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........79 84 81 76 73 68 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............75 78 83 87 89 89 RH..............71 67 61 55 52 48 20 FT WIND......W 4 W 5 W 6 W 6 W 5 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 CWR.............20 40 40 40 40 40 $$ FORECASTER...LASORSA REQUESTED BY...MARK CLERE FBAN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120702.NEIGH.02/LWX