FNUS75 KRIW 031051
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEX CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
451 AM MDT TUE JUL 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2021 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING OVER THE FIRE AS
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRY...WITH LIGHTNING
STRIKES AROUND THE FIRE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WIND TO 45 MPH WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL
BE PRESENT OVER THE FIRE TODAY. COMBINE THIS WITH GUSTY WIND AND
CRITICAL FUELS...AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER
AND AROUND THE FIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2100
THIS EVENING. PLEASE VISIT THE RED FLAG PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END LATE THIS EVENING...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) BY 1400. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78 BELOW 7800 FT....71-74 ABOVE 7800 FT
MIN HUMIDITY........15-18 PERCENT BELOW 7800 FT...17-21 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 7800 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 15 TO
                    19 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER
                    1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 25
                    TO 30 MPH AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200-7200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 TO 30 MPH INCREASING TO 38 TO
                    40 MPH AFTER 1100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (INCREASING TO 349300 KNOT-FT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) AFTER 2200. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-45 BELOW 7800 FT...40-43 ABOVE 7800.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-76 PERCENT BELOW 7800 FT...70-73 PERCENT
                    ABOVE 7800 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH THROUGH 0100. THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH AFTER
                    0400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH AFTER 0100.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1700-2300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 43 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 23
                    MPH AFTER 0100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (221300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (45400 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-74 BELOW 7800 FT...68-71 ABOVE 7800 FT.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 BELOW 7800 FT...21-24 PERCENT ABOVE
                    7800 FT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 12 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AFTER 1300.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8600-9600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25....INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    AFTER 1000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (111700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (213700 KNOT-FT) AFTER 1300.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120702.INDEX.01/RIW