FNUS73 KUNR 030153
FWSUNR

SPOT FORECAST FOR OIL CREEK...WA IMT#5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
753 PM MDT MON JUL 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1935 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RAPID CITY.

...RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
GUSTY WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE 5 TO 15 MILES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRE THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE FIRE. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH FOR A PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...VEERING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5 MPH.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME
BREEZY. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S...AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO
35 MPH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................11 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH.
CWR.................9 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12800 TO 13800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 19 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JC
REQUESTED BY...MATT CASTLE FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120702.OILCR.03/UNR