FNUS74 KBMX 041312 FWSBMX SPOT FORECAST FOR LONG BRANCH...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 812 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0804 CDT ON JULY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES ELEVATED INTO THE 40 PERCENTILES TODAY. THE AREA WHERE YOUR WILDFIRE IS WILL HAVE A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL...STARTING OUR OF THE WEST THIS MORNING...THEN SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY...OR MAYBE EVEN NORTH-NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. LAL................. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8600-10200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 67 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 87 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 98 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 87 DECREASING TO 71 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 60. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY.............MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............77 86 91 93 93 91 RH..............82 67 56 50 47 49 20 FT WIND......NW 2 W 3 W 5 W 5 NW 5 NW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40 40 40 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 3500 8200 10200 9600 8600 TRANSPORT WIND..290/9 330/10 330/10 330/10 320/9 310/7 DISPERSION......4 5 87 98 85 60 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. LAL................. MIXING HEIGHT.......7200-8100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....58 DECREASING TO 1. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY.............MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE TEMP............90 84 77 76 74 73 RH..............49 60 78 79 81 81 20 FT WIND......NW 3 NW 2 N 1 N 1 NE 1 NE 0 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 20 20 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)....8100 4900 400 BLW100 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..310/7 290/5 240/3 220/5 220/5 240/5 DISPERSION......58 26 1 2 2 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LAL................. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 9000-10400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 2 TO 3 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....3 INCREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 51 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 60 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 33 DECREASING TO 11 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY.............MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............73 77 86 91 93 94 RH..............85 78 62 52 47 44 20 FT WIND......NE 1 N 1 W 2 NW 3 N 5 NW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.<5 5 5 5 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 30 30 MIX HGT (FT)....300 100 1000 6900 10400 9000 TRANSPORT WIND..250/3 260/3 280/6 000/7 350/6 220/2 DISPERSION......2 2 3 51 56 9 $$ FORECASTER...UNGER REQUESTED BY...SCOTT LAYFIELD TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120704.LONGB.01/BMX