FNUS75 KBOU 042343 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HIGH PARK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 530 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING CONVECTION TODAY AND THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH STILL MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63. MAX HUMIDITY........53-63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 7-14 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1000 UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-86. MIN HUMIDITY........25-31%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 9000 FT AGL BY 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-60. MAX HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 5 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0900...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-83. MIN HUMIDITY........31-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHEAST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 8200-8800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HIGH PARK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/04-17 64 21 4 80 20 E13 20 3 3 S 5 10028 E 8 66328 G 07/04-18 77 31 10 79 22 E13 20 3 4 S 6 8899 E 9 68300 G 07/04-19 77 31 10 77 24 E12 17 3 4 S 8 6184 E 8 47168 F 07/04-20 77 31 10 76 27 E 9 9 3 4 S10 3469 E 8 26037 P 07/04-21 77 31 10 72 31 E 7 7 3 4 S13 755 E 7 4906 P 07/04-22 77 31 10 69 36 E 6 6 3 4 S15 587 E 7 3776 P 07/04-23 77 31 10 67 40 SE 5 5 2 4 S15 418 SE 7 2646 P 07/05-00 52 10 2 65 44 SE 3 3 2 2 S15 250 SE 7 1516 P 07/05-01 52 10 2 64 48 S 2 2 2 2 S13 261 SE 7 1442 P 07/05-02 52 10 2 63 51 S 2 2 2 2 S10 272 SE 6 1367 P 07/05-03 49 10 2 62 54 SW 2 2 2 2 S 9 283 SE 6 1293 P 07/05-04 49 10 2 61 57 SW 2 2 2 2 S 8 318 SE 3 944 P 07/05-05 49 10 2 60 59 W 3 3 3 2 S 7 353 S 2 594 P 07/05-06 42 6 1 61 59 W 3 3 3 1 S 8 387 CALM 245 P 07/05-07 42 6 1 64 54 SW 3 3 3 1 S 9 3266 SW 5 30359 P 07/05-08 42 6 1 71 43 S 5 5 3 1 S12 6145 S 8 60473 G 07/05-09 42 6 1 77 35 SE 5 5 3 1 S13 9024 S12 90587 G 07/05-10 57 18 4 81 31 SE 6 6 3 3 S14 9644 S13 104879 V 07/05-11 57 18 4 81 30 SE 7 7 2 3 S14 10263 S14 119172 V 07/05-12 65 48 24 82 29 SE 8 8 2 4 S15 10883 S14 133465 V 07/05-13 77 48 24 82 29 SE 8 8 2 4 S17 10643 S16 143804 V 07/05-14 77 48 24 82 29 S 8 8 2 4 S18 10404 S17 154143 E 07/05-15 81 48 24 81 29 S 8 8 2 4 S21 10164 S18 164482 E 07/05-16 81 48 24 80 31 S 8 8 2 4 S23 9271 S16 137306 V 07/05-17 81 48 24 78 33 S 8 8 2 4 S24 8378 S15 110130 V 07/05-18 83 43 20 80 31 S 8 13 2 4 S24 9284 S15 116425 V 07/05-19 83 43 20 77 35 S 5 5 2 4 S21 6419 S12 78407 G 07/05-20 83 43 20 74 40 S 2 2 3 4 S18 3554 S 7 40389 F 07/05-21 83 43 20 69 48 CALM 1 3 4 S16 689 S 3 2371 P 07/05-22 83 43 20 66 53 SW 2 2 3 4 S14 530 S 5 1943 P 07/05-23 83 43 20 65 55 SW 3 3 3 4 S13 371 SW 6 1514 P 07/06-00 63 21 4 63 58 W 6 6 3 3 S12 212 SW 6 1086 P 07/06-01 63 21 4 61 61 W 7 7 3 3 S14 201 W 7 1201 P 07/06-02 63 21 4 60 64 W 8 8 3 3 S15 189 W 8 1316 P 07/06-03 63 21 4 58 68 W 8 13 3 3 SW17 178 W 9 1430 P 07/06-04 63 21 4 57 70 W 9 14 3 3 SW16 169 W 9 1367 P 07/06-05 63 21 4 57 70 W 9 15 3 3 SW14 161 W 9 1305 P 07/06-06 63 19 4 57 69 W 9 15 3 3 SW13 153 W 9 1242 P 07/06-07 63 19 4 59 64 NW 7 7 3 3 S10 676 NW 8 2858 P 07/06-08 63 19 4 63 57 N 5 5 3 3 S 9 1200 NW 6 4475 P 07/06-09 63 26 6 67 50 N 3 3 3 4 S 9 1723 N 5 6091 P 07/06-10 63 26 6 70 44 NE 5 5 3 4 S 9 3943 N 5 14462 P 07/06-11 63 26 6 72 41 E 7 7 3 4 S10 6164 E 5 22833 P 07/06-12 84 42 19 74 39 E 8 13 3 4 S12 8384 E 5 31203 P 07/06-13 84 42 19 75 38 E 8 13 3 4 S14 8532 SE 5 33878 P 07/06-14 84 42 19 76 37 NE 7 7 2 4 S17 8679 SE 5 36552 P 07/06-15 84 42 19 76 37 NE 7 7 2 4 S18 8827 SE 5 39226 P 07/06-16 84 42 19 76 37 NE 7 7 2 4 S18 8520 SE 6 38489 P 07/06-17 84 42 19 76 38 NE 8 13 3 4 S18 8213 SE 6 37751 P 07/06-18 86 41 18 74 40 NE 8 13 3 4 S18 7907 SE 6 37013 P 07/06-19 86 41 18 72 42 NE 7 7 3 4 S22 6249 SE 6 31421 P 07/06-20 86 41 18 69 47 N 6 6 3 4 S25 4591 E 7 25830 P 07/06-21 86 41 18 65 54 N 5 5 3 4 S28 2933 NE 8 20238 P 07/06-22 86 41 18 62 59 N 3 3 3 4 S29 2099 NE 7 14131 P 07/06-23 86 41 18 61 62 NE 2 2 3 4 S29 1266 E 6 8025 P 07/07-00 67 33 12 59 66 NE 2 2 3 4 S28 433 E 5 1918 P 07/07-01 67 33 12 57 70 E 3 3 3 4 S24 449 E 6 2169 P 07/07-02 67 33 12 56 75 E 3 3 2 4 S20 464 SE 6 2420 P 07/07-03 67 33 12 55 80 SE 5 5 2 4 S15 480 SE 7 2671 P 07/07-04 67 33 12 54 85 SE 5 5 2 4 SW13 468 SE 6 2504 P 07/07-05 67 33 12 54 87 SE 3 3 2 4 SW10 455 SE 6 2336 P 07/07-06 70 38 16 54 88 SE 3 3 2 4 SW10 442 SE 6 2169 P 07/07-07 70 38 16 56 82 SE 5 5 2 4 SW 9 1152 SE 6 6904 P 07/07-08 70 38 16 59 74 SE 6 6 3 4 SW10 1862 SE 7 11639 P 07/07-09 70 38 16 63 65 E 7 7 3 4 S12 2572 SE 7 16374 P 07/07-10 70 38 16 66 58 E 7 7 3 4 S15 3292 SE 8 21599 P 07/07-11 70 38 16 68 54 E 6 6 2 4 S18 4013 S 8 26825 P 07/07-12 84 45 22 70 51 E 6 6 2 4 S20 4733 S 8 32050 P 07/07-13 84 45 22 71 50 E 6 6 2 4 S18 5462 S 8 42000 F 07/07-14 84 45 22 71 49 E 6 6 3 4 S15 6191 S 9 51951 F 07/07-15 84 45 22 72 48 E 6 6 3 4 S13 6920 S10 61901 G 07/07-16 84 45 22 72 48 E 6 6 3 4 S12 6722 S10 58294 F 07/07-17 84 45 22 71 49 E 5 5 3 4 S10 6525 S 9 54687 F 07/07-18 83 38 16 71 51 SE 5 5 3 4 S 9 6328 S 9 51080 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...PAUL KEISER REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120704.HIGHP.01/BOU