FNUS71 KLWX 041015 FWSLWX SPOT FORECAST FOR NEIGHBOR MOUNTAIN FIRE...RED TEAM - NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 615 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0610 EDT ON JULY 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MAINLY STAY UP ALONG THE POTOMAC RIVER THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................20 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 9900-10900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO 14 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........65 56 45 47 62 66 WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 76 82 87 89 90 RH..............87 82 67 57 52 50 20 FT WIND......SW 4 W 5 W 6 W 6 W 6 W 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 CWR.............20 10 10 30 50 50 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................50 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......9100-10100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 13 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........70 58 56 55 53 50 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............88 84 79 77 74 73 RH..............54 61 74 79 84 84 20 FT WIND......W 6 W 4 NW 4 W 4 SW 4 W 2 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 5 CWR.............50 30 30 30 20 20 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................20 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 9400-11100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 11200-11900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 8200-9900 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........46 43 43 43 50 50 WEATHER COV.....S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 78 85 90 93 93 RH..............87 76 61 52 46 44 20 FT WIND......W 2 W 2 W 2 NW 3 NW 3 NW 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 CWR.............20 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...JACKSON REQUESTED BY...MARK CLERE FBAN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120704.NEIGH.01/LWX