FNUS72 KMFL 041212
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOOP PINES WX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
812 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0804 EDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA TODAY
AND THIS HAS INDUCED A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONE OR
TWO OF THESE SHOWERS COULD PASS NEAR THE FIRE SITE BUT THE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THIS LOCATION BY THE NOON
HOUR OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF
THE FIRE SITE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM
DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CONSIDERABLE
                    CLOUDINESS. PATCHY SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....39 INCREASING TO 55 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 32 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........20     38     61     67     67     67
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY               SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                     SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
TEMP............83     91     93     93     91     88
RH..............85     61     51     53     58     64
20 FT WIND......E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5    E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   5000   5000   5000   5000   4500
MIXNG WIND......E 8    SE 10  SE 10  SE 10  SE 10  SE 10
DISPERSION IDX..39     55     55     33     33     31
LVORI...........3      3      1      1      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     40     40     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 95 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-700 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CONSIDERABLE
                    CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 54 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....41 INCREASING TO 59 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 33 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...BRABANDER
REQUESTED BY...ADAM KUNCE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120704.LOOPP.01/MFL