FNUS75 KRIW 041504
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CUB...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
904 AM MDT WED JUL 4 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0817 MDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY AS WELL. A PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINS ON THURSDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND KICKS OFF
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL LIKELY BE A WET/DRY MIX ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A BIT
OF RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE
MOIST ON FRIDAY AND STORMS WILL NOT BE VERY PROGRESSIVE...WHICH RAISES
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........A FEW CLOUDS THIS MORNING (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). SOME LOCAL AREAS OF SMOKE IN
                    THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77 AT 7850 FEET AND 65 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT AT 7850 FEET AND 30 PERCENT AT 10000 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13
                    MPH BY 1100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH BY 1500.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8900-9900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 23 TO 29 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (112500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (191600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). INTERMITTENT
                    SPRINKLES IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47 AT 7850 FEET AND 10000 FEET AND 55 IN THE
                    THERMAL BELT AT 9000 FEET.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 65 PERCENT AT 7850 FEET AND 10000 FEET AND 47
                    PERCENT IN THE THERMAL BELT AT 9000 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BY 2200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300-8300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3900-4900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (120200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO FAIR
                    (45500 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70 AT 7850 FEET AND 59 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT AT 7850 FEET AND 60 PERCENT AT 10000 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-5 MPH. WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BY 1400. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.21 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700-6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44900-48900 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...ADAM SMJK
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120704.BEARC.01/RIW