FNUS75 KGJT 060629
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LIGHTNER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1229 AM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1716 MDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOON SURGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO INCLUDING THE FIRE SITE. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS TRIGGER
OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. SO EXPECT STORMS
TO BUILD FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN STARTING LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN
ERRATIC GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WINDS. WITH SLOW
STORM MOTION THERE IS A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE 2-5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE WINDS 2-7 MPH. EXCEPT GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR DECREASING TO POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...DAVIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120705.LIGHT.01/GJT