FNUS75 KRIW 051724
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CUB...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1124 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1037 MDT ON JULY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE WHEN
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE FOLLOWED BY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
TODAY. AS A RESULT A CHANCE OF WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA AFTER SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL ABOVE 11000
FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TETONS. SOME WET THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66 AT 7850 FEET AND 59 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT AT 7850 FEET AND 50 PERCENT AT 10000 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.38 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (42000-53300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41 EXCEPT 50 AT THE THERMAL BELT AROUND 9000 FEET.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.17 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (12700-33100 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76 AT 7850 FEET AND 69 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT AT 7850 FEET AND 34 PERCENT AT 10000 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER 1200 ALTHOUGH WIND DIRECTION WILL OFTEN BE
                    VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.19 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT
                    AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (22000-48600 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...TOBIN KELLY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120705.BEARC.01/RIW