FNUS75 KRIW 061920
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CUB...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
120 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1245 MDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHT...MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY WILL
NOT OCCUR TODAY. SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURS TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74 AT 7850 FEET AND 64 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT AT 7850 FEET AND 42 PERCENT AT 10000 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH MAINLY SOUTHWEST. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800-8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (62500 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-42 EXCEPT 50 IN THE THERMAL BELT AT AROUND 9000 FEET.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-72 PERCENT EXCEPT 60 PERCENT IN THE THERMAL BELT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (47100-61400 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74 AT 7850 FEET AND 64 AT 10000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT AT 7850 FEET AND 43 PERCENT AT 10000 FEET.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.8 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 16
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (80900-120400 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...TIDC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120706.BEARC.01/RIW