FNUS75 KRIW 071012
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEX CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
412 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1731 MDT ON JULY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. THE WIND ALOFT IS NOT VERY STRONG AND THUS STORMS WILL TEND
TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF WETTING RAIN AS WELL AS MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. IF STORMS DO
IMPACT THE FIRE AREA...ANY FEEDBACK ON WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE
GREATLY APPRECIATED. IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND ALOFT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MORNING SUNSHINE.
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-32 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
                    5 TO 10 MPH.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH.

                    ERRATIC RIDGE TOP WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
                    DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    THAT MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE FIRE.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN LAL 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1500.
                    THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1500.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING FAIR BY 1100...THEN BECOMING GOOD
                    BY 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-89 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH BY 2100.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BY 2100.

                    ERRATIC RIDGE TOP WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
                    DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    THAT MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE FIRE.

LAL.................2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THAN LAL 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BY 2100.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR AT SUNSET...THEN POOR BY MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MORNING SUNSHINE.  BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH.

                    ERRATIC RIDGE TOP WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
                    DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    THAT MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE FIRE.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7500-8500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1500.
                    THEN WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1500.

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING FAIR BY 1200...THEN BECOMING GOOD
                    BY 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. DOWNVALLEY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND AT 4 TO 8 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
UPVALLEY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND AT 5 TO 9 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.  HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120706.INDEX.01/RIW