FNUS75 KRIW 081101 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEX CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 501 AM MDT SUN JUL 8 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1732 MDT ON JULY 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...BASED ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS FORMED YESTERDAY MORNING... I WOULD EXPECT THE SAME SCENARIO THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS FORMING AFTER 0900 AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 1300 AND THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AGAIN THE WIND ALOFT IS NOT VERY STRONG TODAY AND THUS STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WHICH COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN AS WELL AS MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. IF STORMS DO IMPACT THE FIRE AREA...ANY FEEDBACK ON OBSERVED WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN THE WIND ALOFT ON MONDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT...THUS SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...AR .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MORNING SUNSHINE GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 0900. MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...DROPPING INTO THE 50S DURING SHOWERS OR STORMS. MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH. ERRATIC RIDGE TOP WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE FIRE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING FAIR BY 1100...INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1400. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-46. MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 MPH BY 2100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BY 2100. ERRATIC RIDGE TOP WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE FIRE. LAL.................2 UNTIL 0300...THEN LAL 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.16 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR BY SUNSET...THEN POOR BY MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MORNING SUNSHINE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING BY 1200. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78. MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY OR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 13 MPH. ERRATIC RIDGE TOP WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR AT OR NEAR THE FIRE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN LAL 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING FAIR BY 1100...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DOWNVALLEY OR NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 77 TO 82. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 45 TO 50. HIGHS 80 TO 85. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...ROSS REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120707.INDEX.01/RIW