FNUS75 KGJT 072137
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE SAND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
337 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON JULY 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HOT MID WEST UPPER RIDGE WILL BE RELOCATING TO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOME DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN COLORADO
BUT THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE BURN SITE ON SUNDAY...MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE IN THE MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING THROUGH THE
EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL SO THE EXCESS RUNOFF OVER THE BURN SCAR WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. LIGHT WINDS UNDER RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OVERHEAD
WHICH MAY ALLOW THE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS TO DOMINATE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON SUNDAY THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL INDICATED TO
BE SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEST AND MAY ALLOW THE UPVALLEY WINDS TO
FORM. HOWEVER ON MONDAY A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST ALOFT AND
MAY OVERCOME THE UPVALLEY FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT
AS THESE WINDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS NEAR THE RIDGETOPS. ANY
FEEDBACK ON WIND PATTERNS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MID MORNING...BECOMING MORE
                    SCATTERED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWN VALLEY WINDS AT 3 TO 8 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE
                    BY MID MORNING AT 4 TO 8 MPH THEN UPVALLEY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
                    MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51 TO 56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
                    THEN BECOMING DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH BY SUNSET.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASING TO
                    LESS THAN 1500 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS AND 3 TO 8 MPH THROUGH MID MORNING
                    BECOMING UP VALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 8900 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JASON CLAPP IMET
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120708.LITTL.01/GJT