FNUS71 KLWX 081059 FWSLWX SPOT FORECAST FOR NEIGHBOR MOUNTAIN FIRE...RED TEAM - NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0624 EDT ON JULY 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE WEEK. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-4400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6100-7800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 7900-8900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 6700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 14 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH LATE. SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........15 26 36 47 54 57 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............76 81 85 89 92 92 RH..............82 69 61 54 47 47 20 FT WIND......W 1 W 0 W 0 NW 1 NW 3 NW 4 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 CWR.............0 10 10 40 40 50 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................60 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 40 PERCENT IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH. SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........61 64 82 86 79 77 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............90 84 79 76 74 72 RH..............52 67 74 79 79 79 20 FT WIND......N 4 N 5 NE 5 NE 5 NE 4 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 CWR.............60 60 40 40 40 40 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. CWR.................40 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4100-4800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 15 MPH. SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........77 77 77 76 75 75 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 71 73 75 75 75 RH..............73 78 73 67 63 65 20 FT WIND......NE 5 N 5 N 4 N 4 NE 4 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 CWR.............40 40 40 40 40 40 $$ FORECASTER...KONARIK REQUESTED BY...MARK CLERE FBAN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120708.NEIGH.01/LWX