FNUS75 KRIW 101037
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEX CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
437 AM MDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1647 MDT ON JULY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FIRE AREA FROM NOON TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING.
AN ISOLATED MORNING SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AN EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN EVEN HIGHER
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER BASED
DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE COULD BE SOME WETTING
RAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF SOME OF THESE STORMS BUT THE EDGES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND VERY STRONG WINDS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DRY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-83.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 6-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200-8800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (42700-84400 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...
                    SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DRY...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-72 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600-2100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7
                    TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR IN THE EVENING...THEN POOR (14000-52700 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND
                    12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700-8400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (61900-104300 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120709.INDEX.01/RIW