FNUS75 KRIW 111040
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEX CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
440 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1915 MDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS THE TEENS...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE
EXCEPT WHEN NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE VERY STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AGAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THIS MORNING WITH
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)...THEN SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 6-12 MPH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-6000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (90000 KNOT-FT)...BECOMING EXCELLENT (220000 KNOT
                    -FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 11-16 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...
                    THEN DECREASING TO 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.6 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400-2900 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO 6 TO 10 MPH
                    AFTER DARK.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (74100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (25000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-6100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000-9500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (40400-80000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120710.INDEX.01/RIW