FNUS75 KRIW 111018
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PICKETT...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
418 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2043 MDT ON JULY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS THE TEENS...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS OR A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE
MONTANA BORDER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE
EXCEPT WHEN NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE VERY STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AGAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-60 PERCENT) THIS MORNING WITH
                    ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
                    THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 6.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.25 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000-10500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (85000-113300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........49-52 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................6 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500-3300 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75000 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR (36000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000-9500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45000 KNOT-FT)...BECOMING GOOD (85000 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...CDC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120710.PICKE.01/RIW