FNUS75 KRIW 121059
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR INDEX CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
459 AM MDT THU JUL 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1908 MDT ON JULY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A FEW BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A MOIST SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRIVEN
THE DIURNAL CYCLE EXCEPT FOR OUTFLOWS FROM ANY NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 14 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 MPH AFTER 1600L.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9200-9700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (49000 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    106000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800-8800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2600-3100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (82400 KNOT-FT)...THEN BECOMING POOR (30000
                    KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-8500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (55000 KNOT-FT)...BECOMING VERY GOOD (108000
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...CLINT DAWSON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120711.INDEX.01/RIW