FNUS75 KRIW 130432
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKTAIL...NPS YNP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1032 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2137 MDT ON JULY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.


.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING UP ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL PUSH INTO YELLOWSTONE
NATIONAL PARK FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL BE INCREASINGLY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL TREND HIGHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-86.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH....BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST
                    EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH.  ERRATIC AND GUSTY
                    THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINANT
                    AFTER 1500L.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 0900L...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-54.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-76 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......GUSTY ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS DOMINANT THROUGH
                    1900...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY OR EAST 4-7 MPH LATE
                    EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH 2100L...BECOMING POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-48 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.35 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-7000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (46800-76500 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...LAURA DOOLEY
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120712.BLACK.01/RIW