FNUS75 KTWC 121953
FWSTWC

SPOT FORECAST FOR CAVE CREEK...SAN CARLOS AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1253 PM MST THU JUL 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1241 MST ON JULY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIRE SITE. AS STORM MOTION IS
EASTERLY...MAY SEE THIS ACTIVITY MOVE OVER THE FIRE SITE BETWEEN
1400 AND 1500 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING...GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2200 THIS EVENING...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FOR FUTURE SPOT REQUESTS...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN PHOENIX...AS THE FIRE SITE FALLS IN
THEIR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85 TO 90 DEGS.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 TO 30 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................4.
CHANCE OF RAIN......30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51 TO 56 DEGS.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 TO 95 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 3.
CHANCE OF RAIN......40 PERCENT UNTIL 2400...THEN 20 PCT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88 TO 93 DEGS.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 TO 26 PCT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 5
                    TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHANCE OF RAIN......20 PERCENT UNTIL 1200...THEN 30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

$$
FORECASTER...FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER
REQUESTED BY...DUANE CHAPMAN AFMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120712.CAVEC.01/TWC