FNUS75 KRIW 140424
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BILLY CREEK  2...BLM CAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1024 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2130 MDT ON JULY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 2230L
AND MIDNIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING ERRATIC OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST AND POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
RAINFALL. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN LATE
IN THE DAY AND EVENING.

THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
                    THE EVENING BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEFORE
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-62.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-43 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......ERRATIC WINDS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE VICINITY TO DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS
                    TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY 4 TO 8 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    ERRATIC CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
                    DOMINATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.


.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........57-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 IN
                    THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.35 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...EDDIE HUTTON
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120713.BILLY.01/RIW