FNUS71 KLWX 142239
FWSLWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LEVELS FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
639 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1737 EDT ON JULY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN VIRGINIA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN IMPACTING THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING UNTIL
SUNSET...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE VERY ISOLATED.

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. STORMS ON SUNDAY AGAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND.

STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S LIKELY. A CHANCE OF STORMS RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3700-5300 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    6600-7800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 4000-5600 FT AGL
                    LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........63     60     52     54     65     76
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............70     73     75     78     78     79
RH..............87     79     76     69     69     64
20 FT WIND......W 5    W 4    SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      10     10     10     10
CWR.............10     20     20     50     30     30

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................50 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........83     86     83     81     79     72
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     76     74     73     72     72
RH..............67     74     79     81     84     81
20 FT WIND......SW 5   W 4    W 4    W 5    W 5    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      10     10     10
CWR.............50     40     40     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...KRAMAR
REQUESTED BY...TED DOCEV
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120714.LEVEL.01/LWX