FNUS73 KAPX 161919 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR DAVIDSON...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 319 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1431 EDT ON JULY 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BURN AREA...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING IN THE MID 90S WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT. IT WILL BE A TRICKY WIND FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE BURN SITE IS ON THE FRINGE OF INFLUENCE FROM LAKE HURON. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS MAY TURN TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE PREVAILING WINDS VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE DIURNAL LAKE INFLUENCE DIMINISHES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IF THE LAKE BREEZE IS STRONG ENOUGH...WINDS MAY BACK COMPLETELY EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS NOT THE LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...AND WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BURN AREA WITH A SAGGING COLD FRONT...BUT THIS WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........93 AT REQUEST...MAX 95. RH..................46 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT REQUEST...THEN BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 17 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT REQUEST. MAX...EXCELLENT (1000). MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5600. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 17 MPH. TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........61 64 69 72 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............93 94 95 93 RH..............47 46 43 40 20 FT WIND DIR..S S SSE SSE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......900 900 900 1000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 75. RH..................MAX 69 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........68 61 57 59 63 65 48 51 53 52 51 51 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............90 87 85 83 81 80 79 78 78 77 77 77 RH..............42 44 47 50 55 58 62 64 64 69 69 69 20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......120015001500900 300 0 0 0 100 100 100 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 91. RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 21 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700). MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 21 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........50 49 55 63 69 69 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............77 79 84 88 90 90 RH..............69 67 60 52 47 47 20 FT WIND......W 9 W 8 W 10 W 9 NW 6 NW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 15 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 3 4 SMOKE DISP......0 100 500 600 100 100 $$ FORECASTER...NICK SCHWARTZ REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120716.DAVID.01/APX