FNUS75 KPUB 160915
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WALDO CANYON...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MONSOON WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO TODAY. A WEAK EASTERLY SURGE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT UPSLOPE
WINDS OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG WITH THE INCREASED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
OVER THE BURN SCAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE TENTH AN INCH. THE
CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE HEIGHTENED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING RAIN RATES IN THE ONE INCH PER HOUR RATE. WFO PUEBLO WILL
BE MONITORING THE BURN SCAR VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(45 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWN SLOPE UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 10
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 13000 FT AGL AFTER
                    0900.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN EAST
                    AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1700...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND
                    3 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    1700...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(60 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0900 UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD AFTER 1700.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 4 UNTIL 1200...THEN 5.

$$
FORECASTER...ROSE
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120716.WALDO.01/PUB