FNUS75 KRIW 162317
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FONTENELLE FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
517 PM MDT MON JUL 16 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1655 MDT ON JULY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS MEANS LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE STORMS WILL
HAVE LESS RAINFALL ALONG WITH THOSE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...AR

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED MORNING RAIN SHOWER
                    POSSIBLE. THEN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE DIRECTION AT 3 TO 5 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL 1300.
                    THEN SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 13 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AFTER 1300.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH AFTER 1000 UNTIL 1200.
                    THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 13 TO 18 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.16 PERCENT.
RAINFALL............0.01 INCHES TO 0.05 INCHES.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1200...THEN BECOMING VERY GOOD
                    BY 1400.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 MPH UNTIL SUNSET
                    WITH GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTH AT 4 TO 7 MPH AFTER SUNSET. THEN VARIABLE
                    IN DIRECTION AT 3 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
                    20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.  THEN BECOMING SOUTH TO
                    SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
RAINFALL............0.01 INCHES TO 0.05 INCHES.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO AROUND 1000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO FAIR BY 2100...DECREASING TO POOR
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.

20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 1000
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1000.
                    THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1000.
                    WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
RAINFALL............0.01 INCHES TO 0.05 INCHES.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8000-9000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH BY 1200 AND CONTINUING
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD BY 1200...THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    BY 1400.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS CHURCH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20120716.FONTE.02/RIW