FNUS75 KBOU 182026 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER MOUNTAIN FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 226 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...LOOK FOR NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....81. MIN HUMIDITY........13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000-12000 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 9000-9200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....52. MAX HUMIDITY........50-53%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...QUICKLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....84. MIN HUMIDITY........15-18%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 0-4 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 10000-11000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 11600-12600 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 8400-9400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAVER MOUNTAINFIRE... ....................CAUTION................... THE DATA IN THE TABLE BELOW IS FOR AN ELEVATION JUST ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET AND NOT 8300 FEET DUE TO THE LAT/LON PLOT ENTERED ON THE SPOT REQUEST. AS A RESULT...ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER AND HUMIDITY READINGS ABOUT 10 PERCENT LOWER AT THE BURN SITE THAN THOSE SEEN IN THE TABLE BELOW... +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/18-14 63 37 15 70 34 SE 9 14 4 4 W18 12032 SW 6 65271 G 07/18-15 65 37 15 69 25 SE 5 5 5 4 W20 10703 SW 8 72513 G 07/18-16 65 37 15 69 27 SE 6 6 5 4 W17 9269 SW 7 57654 F 07/18-17 65 37 15 68 30 SE 6 6 4 4 W15 8951 SW 7 58110 F 07/18-18 63 23 5 67 31 SE 6 6 4 3 W12 7865 S 8 54421 F 07/18-19 63 23 5 64 34 S 5 5 4 3 W13 5622 S 9 42719 F 07/18-20 63 23 5 60 36 S 5 5 4 3 W14 4021 S 9 30627 P 07/18-21 63 14 3 58 39 S 3 3 4 2 SW14 1182 S 8 7968 P 07/18-22 63 14 3 55 45 S 3 3 4 2 SW14 299 S 6 1548 P 07/18-23 63 14 3 53 49 SW 3 3 4 2 W15 247 S 6 1136 P 07/19-00 40 7 1 51 53 SW 3 3 4 1 W15 200 SW 5 828 P 07/19-01 40 7 1 49 57 SW 3 3 4 1 W14 174 SW 5 688 P 07/19-02 40 7 1 49 58 SW 5 5 4 1 W12 160 SW 5 661 P 07/19-03 32 5 1 48 60 W 5 5 4 1 W10 153 SW 5 621 P 07/19-04 32 5 1 48 58 W 6 6 4 1 W 9 147 SW 5 597 P 07/19-05 32 5 1 49 54 W 6 6 4 1 SW 8 148 W 5 660 P 07/19-06 39 6 1 48 56 W 6 6 4 1 SW 8 141 W 5 602 P 07/19-07 39 6 1 48 58 W 5 5 4 1 SW 8 157 W 3 503 P 07/19-08 39 6 1 51 55 W 3 3 4 1 SW 7 816 W 2 2009 P 07/19-09 39 7 1 59 43 NW 2 2 4 1 SW 7 2900 CALM 3623 P 07/19-10 39 7 1 68 31 W 2 2 4 1 SW 7 9479 W 2 18429 P 07/19-11 39 7 1 71 28 S 3 3 5 1 SW 7 11451 SW 2 23084 P 07/19-12 68 40 18 74 25 SE 5 5 5 4 W 7 12904 S 3 37756 P 07/19-13 68 40 18 74 26 SE 6 6 5 4 SW 6 12332 S 5 50769 F 07/19-14 68 40 18 73 28 SE 6 6 4 4 S 5 11041 S 6 59222 F 07/19-15 68 40 18 70 32 SE 7 7 4 4 S 2 9744 S 7 60797 G 07/19-16 68 40 18 68 35 S 7 7 4 4 S 3 8672 S 8 59974 F 07/19-17 68 40 18 66 38 S 7 7 4 4 S 5 8022 S 8 59984 F 07/19-18 67 30 16 66 39 S 7 18 4 4 S 6 6606 S 9 49672 F 07/19-19 67 30 16 64 44 S 7 17 4 4 S 7 5190 S 9 39360 P 07/19-20 67 30 16 66 47 S 6 15 4 4 S 7 3774 S 9 29048 P 07/19-21 67 30 16 61 49 S 6 13 4 4 S 8 2358 S 9 18736 P 07/19-22 67 30 16 55 55 S 8 8 4 4 SW 8 942 S 9 8424 P 07/19-23 67 30 16 53 58 S 7 7 4 4 S 8 576 S 9 4934 P 07/20-00 45 18 4 51 61 S 7 7 4 3 S 7 211 S 8 1444 P 07/20-01 45 18 4 50 65 S 6 6 4 3 S 7 194 S 7 1207 P 07/20-02 45 18 4 49 65 SW 5 5 4 3 S 7 177 SW 6 970 P 07/20-03 45 18 4 49 66 SW 5 5 4 3 S 7 160 SW 6 733 P 07/20-04 45 18 4 49 64 SW 5 5 4 3 S 9 153 SW 6 717 P 07/20-05 45 18 4 49 62 SW 6 6 4 3 S12 145 SW 6 700 P 07/20-06 56 9 2 48 64 SW 6 6 4 1 S13 138 SW 6 684 P 07/20-07 56 9 2 48 65 SW 6 6 4 1 S14 844 SW 6 3348 P 07/20-08 56 9 2 51 62 W 5 5 4 1 S13 1549 SW 5 6012 P 07/20-09 56 9 2 57 50 W 5 5 4 1 S12 2255 SW 5 8675 P 07/20-10 56 9 2 65 37 SW 5 5 4 1 S12 5366 SW 5 20211 P 07/20-11 56 9 2 68 32 S 5 5 5 1 SW10 8478 S 5 31746 P 07/20-12 64 42 19 70 30 SE 6 6 5 4 SW 9 11589 S 5 43282 F 07/20-13 64 42 19 72 29 SE 7 7 5 4 SW 9 10764 S 6 48468 F 07/20-14 64 42 19 72 30 SE 8 8 5 4 SW 9 9939 S 7 53654 F 07/20-15 64 42 19 69 34 SE 8 13 5 4 W 9 9113 S 7 58841 F 07/20-16 64 42 19 67 38 SE 8 13 5 4 SW 8 7863 S 8 54854 F 07/20-17 64 42 19 65 41 S 7 7 4 4 SW 7 6614 S 9 50868 F 07/20-18 59 30 9 65 42 S 6 6 4 4 SW 6 5364 S10 46881 F 07/20-19 59 30 9 62 45 S 5 5 4 4 SW 6 3686 S 8 31718 P 07/20-20 59 30 9 61 47 S 3 3 4 4 S 7 2009 S 7 16555 P 07/20-21 59 30 9 58 50 SW 2 2 4 4 S 7 331 S 5 1392 P 07/20-22 59 30 9 55 56 SW 2 2 4 4 S 7 274 S 5 1115 P 07/20-23 59 30 9 53 59 SW 2 2 5 4 SW 7 217 SW 5 839 P 07/21-00 45 16 3 51 63 SW 3 3 5 3 SW 7 159 SW 5 562 P 07/21-01 45 16 3 49 66 SW 3 3 5 3 SW 6 149 SW 5 562 P 07/21-02 45 16 3 48 67 W 5 5 4 3 SW 5 138 SW 5 562 P 07/21-03 45 16 3 48 68 W 5 5 4 3 SW 2 127 W 5 561 P 07/21-04 45 16 3 48 68 W 5 5 4 3 S 2 126 W 5 546 P 07/21-05 45 16 3 48 66 W 5 5 4 3 SE 2 125 W 5 530 P 07/21-06 51 25 5 47 69 W 5 5 4 3 CALM 124 W 5 514 P 07/21-07 51 25 5 47 68 NW 5 5 3 07/21-08 51 25 5 50 63 N 3 3 3 07/21-09 51 25 5 57 49 N 3 3 3 07/21-10 51 25 5 65 37 NE 3 3 3 07/21-11 51 25 5 68 33 E 2 2 3 07/21-12 62 40 18 70 32 E 2 2 4 07/21-13 62 40 18 71 30 E 2 2 4 07/21-14 62 40 18 71 31 E 3 3 4 07/21-15 62 40 18 69 35 E 3 3 4 07/21-16 62 40 18 67 38 E 3 3 4 07/21-17 62 40 18 65 42 E 3 3 4 07/21-18 65 32 11 64 43 E 3 3 4 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120718.BEAVE.01/BOU