FNUS75 KBOU 221029 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BAKER GULCH FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 415 AM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FIRE AREA THROUGH THEN. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE STATE TODAY SO THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS A BIT ELEVATED FROM YESTERDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 0900...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-83. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10800-11800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-84. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10800-11800 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BAKER GULCH FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/22-04 39 6 1 47 78 S 5 5 2 1 S20 191 S 5 783 P 07/22-05 39 6 1 47 77 SW 3 3 2 1 S17 195 SW 5 705 P 07/22-06 38 4 1 47 77 SW 3 3 2 1 S15 199 W 3 628 P 07/22-07 38 4 1 49 75 W 2 2 2 1 S13 1405 W 3 4577 P 07/22-08 38 4 1 55 64 W 2 2 2 1 S10 2610 W 3 8527 P 07/22-09 58 4 1 61 53 CALM 1 2 1 S 9 3815 W 3 12477 P 07/22-10 58 4 1 66 43 CALM 1 2 1 S 9 6056 SW 3 17000 P 07/22-11 58 4 1 70 35 CALM 1 2 1 S 9 8298 S 3 21523 P 07/22-12 75 42 19 72 30 CALM 1 2 4 S 9 10539 S 2 26045 P 07/22-13 75 42 19 74 27 CALM 1 2 4 S 8 10951 S 2 26082 P 07/22-14 75 42 19 75 25 CALM 1 2 4 S 8 11364 SW 2 26118 P 07/22-15 89 42 19 75 25 CALM 1 2 4 S 8 11776 SW 2 26155 P 07/22-16 89 42 19 76 25 CALM 1 2 4 S 9 11453 SW 3 31400 P 07/22-17 89 42 19 75 28 CALM 1 2 4 S12 11130 SW 3 36646 P 07/22-18 75 39 17 74 32 SW 2 2 2 4 S14 10808 S 5 41892 F 07/22-19 75 39 17 71 37 SW 3 3 2 4 S15 8511 S 6 36261 P 07/22-20 75 39 17 67 44 S 6 6 2 4 S16 6215 SW 7 30630 P 07/22-21 61 39 17 63 53 S 7 7 2 4 S17 3919 SW 7 24999 P 07/22-22 61 39 17 60 59 S 7 7 2 4 S18 2881 SW 7 18174 P 07/22-23 61 39 17 58 61 S 7 7 2 4 S21 1844 SW 7 11348 P 07/23-00 47 10 2 55 64 S 6 6 2 2 S22 806 SW 7 4523 P 07/23-01 47 10 2 53 68 S 5 5 2 2 SW23 626 SW 6 3291 P 07/23-02 47 10 2 52 70 SW 3 3 2 2 SW25 447 SW 5 2059 P 07/23-03 45 10 2 50 72 W 2 2 2 2 SW25 267 W 3 826 P 07/23-04 45 10 2 49 75 CALM 1 2 2 SW23 266 SW 3 832 P 07/23-05 45 10 2 49 74 CALM 1 2 2 SW20 265 SW 3 837 P 07/23-06 42 0 0 49 72 CALM 1 2 1 SW17 264 SW 3 842 P 07/23-07 42 0 0 51 66 SW 2 2 2 1 SW16 1657 SW 6 11981 P 07/23-08 42 0 0 57 53 SW 3 3 2 1 S16 3049 W 7 23119 P 07/23-09 42 0 0 63 43 W 5 5 2 1 S16 4442 W 9 34258 P 07/23-10 42 0 0 68 37 W 7 7 2 1 SW21 6487 W 9 54382 F 07/23-11 42 0 0 71 33 W 8 8 2 1 SW20 8340 SW 9 69078 G 07/23-12 71 40 18 73 31 W 9 9 2 4 SW18 10193 SW 9 83775 G 07/23-13 71 40 18 75 30 W 9 9 2 4 S16 10782 SW 8 71433 G 07/23-14 71 40 18 76 29 W 8 8 2 4 S13 11371 SW 6 59091 F 07/23-15 71 40 18 77 29 W 7 7 2 4 S 9 11960 SW 5 46749 F 07/23-16 71 40 18 77 30 W 6 6 2 4 S 7 11810 SW 3 40224 F 07/23-17 71 40 18 76 31 W 5 5 2 4 S 5 11659 S 3 33700 P 07/23-18 76 40 18 75 34 W 3 3 2 4 S 3 11509 S 2 27175 P 07/23-19 76 40 18 72 37 W 5 5 2 4 S 5 9050 S 5 28431 P 07/23-20 76 40 18 68 42 W 6 6 2 4 S 7 6592 SW 7 29686 P 07/23-21 76 40 18 63 49 W 7 7 2 4 S 9 4133 W 8 30942 P 07/23-22 76 40 18 60 54 W 6 6 2 4 S13 2968 W 7 21347 P 07/23-23 76 40 18 58 57 W 3 3 2 4 S16 1802 W 6 11752 P 07/24-00 52 0 0 56 62 W 2 2 2 1 S18 637 NW 3 2157 P 07/24-01 52 0 0 54 67 W 2 2 2 1 S21 513 W 3 1665 P 07/24-02 52 0 0 52 70 W 2 2 2 1 SW21 390 W 3 1173 P 07/24-03 52 0 0 50 73 W 2 2 2 1 SW20 267 W 3 681 P 07/24-04 52 0 0 49 75 W 2 2 2 1 SW18 267 W 3 730 P 07/24-05 52 0 0 49 75 W 2 2 2 1 SW15 266 W 3 780 P 07/24-06 52 0 0 49 74 W 2 2 2 1 SW13 266 W 3 829 P 07/24-07 52 0 0 51 70 W 3 3 2 1 SW10 1213 NW 3 3544 P 07/24-08 52 0 0 55 62 W 3 3 2 1 SW 9 2161 NW 3 6259 P 07/24-09 52 0 0 60 54 W 5 5 2 1 S 8 3108 NW 3 8974 P 07/24-10 52 0 0 63 48 W 5 5 2 1 S 8 4843 N 2 9338 P 07/24-11 52 0 0 66 45 W 6 6 2 1 S 8 6578 N 2 9703 P 07/24-12 79 50 26 68 43 W 6 6 2 4 S 8 8313 CALM 10068 P 07/24-13 79 50 26 69 42 W 6 6 2 4 S 7 8651 CALM 11203 P 07/24-14 79 50 26 70 41 W 6 6 2 4 S 8 8988 CALM 12339 P 07/24-15 79 50 26 71 41 W 6 6 2 4 S 8 9326 CALM 13474 P 07/24-16 79 50 26 71 41 W 6 6 2 4 S10 9075 NW 3 23343 P 07/24-17 79 50 26 70 42 W 7 7 2 4 S14 8824 W 5 33211 P 07/24-18 79 50 26 69 43 W 7 7 2 4 SW15 8573 W 6 43080 F 07/24-19 79 50 26 67 46 W 6 6 2 4 SW15 6804 W 7 36286 P 07/24-20 79 50 26 64 52 W 6 6 2 4 SW15 5034 W 7 29492 P 07/24-21 79 50 26 59 59 W 5 5 2 4 SW14 3264 W 8 22698 P 07/24-22 79 50 26 57 64 W 5 5 2 4 SW14 2665 W 8 18141 P 07/24-23 79 50 26 55 67 NW 5 5 2 4 SW14 2066 NW 7 13584 P 07/25-00 62 10 2 53 71 NW 5 5 2 2 SW15 1468 NW 7 9028 P 07/25-01 62 10 2 51 75 NW 5 5 2 2 SW15 1082 NW 7 6523 P 07/25-02 62 10 2 50 78 NW 3 3 2 2 W15 696 NW 6 4019 P 07/25-03 62 10 2 49 81 NW 3 3 2 2 W15 310 NW 6 1514 P 07/25-04 62 10 2 47 83 NW 3 3 2 2 W15 318 NW 6 1625 P 07/25-05 62 10 2 47 82 W 3 3 2 2 W14 327 NW 6 1735 P 07/25-06 49 18 4 48 80 W 3 3 2 3 W14 335 NW 7 1846 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120721.BAKER.01/BOU