FNUS75 KGJT 220211
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CONWAY...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
811 PM MDT SAT JUL 21 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1949 MDT ON JULY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WERE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRE SITE...BUT WILL MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE SITE
BY ABOUT 9 PM MDT. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE
FIRE SITE THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING...CAUSING ABRUPT SHIFTS IN THE
WINDS TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
AND WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL SLOPE AND VALLEY BREEZES. EXPECT A
REPEAT SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FIRE SITE EARLY
BUT MOVING NORTH AND OVER THE SITE BY EVENING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING SCATTERED BY 9 PM.
                    DECREASING TO ISOLATED AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........42-47%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 12 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH...
                    SOUTHEAST 10 GUSTING TO 20 MPH ABOUT 9 PM.
                    EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
                    GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...WINDS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    3 TO 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 4. AFTER MIDNIGHT 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 5 MPH UNTIL 9 AM...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 9 AM...THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13500 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...CHRIS CUOCO
REQUESTED BY...JENNA
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120721.CONWA.01/GJT