FNUS75 KGJT 230131
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR POWELL COMPLEX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
731 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1633 MDT ON JULY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR A
REPEAT EACH DAY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME SUBTLE DRYING BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTRAL U.S. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THIS DRYING WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS MAY DOMINATE THE
SURFACE FLOW AT TIMES. THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING THESE WINDS
COULD BE NEARBY...OR POSSIBLY EVEN AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE FIRE.

.MONDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING SOUTHEAST 4-8
                    MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%) AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BETTER SMOKE DISPERSAL DURING STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING SOUTHEAST 4-8
                    MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...SID HALL FBAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20120722.POWEL.01/GJT