FNUS73 KLBF 221658 FWSLBF SPOT FORECAST FOR FAIRFIELD CREEK FIRE...NEMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1158 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1140 CDT ON JULY 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THE FIRE MAY CREATE A DIFFERENT WIND FIELD DEPENDING ON TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH...ABOVE 100...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HOWEVER DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWER. NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TOMORROW OR TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTH TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 106. MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9300 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 12800-14700 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 9900 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN 5100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO GOOD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO POOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM SKY (%).........35 39 44 48 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............98 103 105 104 RH..............25 21 19 21 20 FT WIND......NE 2 NE 2 E 2 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..N 2 NE 2 E 2 E 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..5 5 5 10 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................3 DECREASING TO 1 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........50 48 46 45 40 34 WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............102 91 84 81 78 75 RH..............23 32 41 51 56 62 20 FT WIND......E 6 E 5 E 5 S 6 S 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 6 E 5 E 5 S 6 S 5 S 6 EYE LEVEL WIND..10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 5 5 5 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 105. MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 15900-16900 FT AGL AFTER 1300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........29 26 22 20 21 23 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............73 82 91 98 103 104 RH..............64 44 30 23 19 19 20 FT WIND......SE 9 S 10 S 11 S 12 S 13 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 30 30 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 9 S 10 S 11 S 12 S 13 S 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..20 25 25 30 30 25 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 $$ FORECASTER...MASEK REQUESTED BY...BRENT CURTIS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120722.FAIRF.02/LBF