FNUS73 KLBF 230343 FWSLBF SPOT FORECAST FOR FAIRFIELD CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1043 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2233 CDT ON JULY 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY... .DISCUSSION... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE S DAKOTA BORDER ON MONDAY. AS SUCH...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FIRE PARAMETER WITH PEAK WIND GUST POTENTIAL OF 25 MPH OR GREATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET SOUTH OF THE FRONT /BELOW 15 PERCENT/ OVER THE FIRE PARAMETER AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABNORMAL VALUES /104-108F/. NOTE THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A HAINES INDEX OF 6 FOR THE FIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE FIRE ZONE. MONDAY EVENING...CONVECTION MAY FIRE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND/OR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE PARAMETER...GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO TRIPLE DIGIT TERRITORY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT. A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FIRE...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. DRY LIGHTNING MAY BE A CONCERN. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 104. MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 INCREASING TO 3 IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5500 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 13200-13400 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 9500 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN 5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO VERY GOOD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO GOOD. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........38 33 27 22 26 32 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 80 90 97 102 103 RH..............75 45 31 25 20 20 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 6 S 8 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 25 25 25 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5 S 6 S 8 SW 10 SW 10 SW 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..10 15 15 25 25 25 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3 DECREASING TO 1 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 8 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........36 38 39 41 40 38 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE TEMP............100 90 83 79 77 74 RH..............23 34 47 56 61 66 20 FT WIND......SW 9 S 6 S 5 S 7 N 2 N 1 20 FT WIND GUST.20 10 10 15 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 9 S 6 S 5 S 7 N 2 N 1 EYE LEVEL WIND..20 10 10 15 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 101. MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 11 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1100 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 2500-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 5400 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 7700 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 10000 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 12300 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 8800 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN 5300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO VERY GOOD EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO FAIR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........36 36 36 36 44 54 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............72 80 88 95 99 100 RH..............69 52 39 31 28 27 20 FT WIND......N 1 E 3 SE 5 SE 6 SE 8 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 10 20 15 EYE LEVEL WIND..N 1 E 3 SE 5 SE 6 SE 8 SE 8 EYE LEVEL WIND.. 5 10 20 15 HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6 $$ FORECASTER...JACOBS REQUESTED BY...GLEN LEWIS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120722.FAIRF.05/LBF