FNUS73 KAPX 240221 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR RAY RAY FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1021 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2149 EDT ON JULY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION...BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW WELL DOWNSTATE. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE BEEN BOOSTED BY MOISTURE INPUT FROM THE UNUSUALLY WARM GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL PROVIDE FOR FAVORABLE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT GO TOTALLY CALM...WITH AN INITIAL LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE BECOMING MORE NORTH BY FIRST LIGHT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS WE WARM UP AND MIX DOWN DRIER AIR FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY...BUT AT THE FIRE SITE A SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD ONLY REACH 10 MPH AT MOST. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING A TAD EAST OF DUE NORTH IN THE MORNING...AND A TAD WEST OF DUE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY LAKE BREEZE PASSAGE...IF IT HAPPENS...SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 5 PM. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 62. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MIN 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH. TIME (EDT) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........20 23 25 26 26 26 26 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............74 71 69 67 66 65 64 RH..............66 76 81 84 84 87 87 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 SMOKE DISP......200 100 100 100 100 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 82. RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800-8300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1500). MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800-8300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........25 21 21 20 10 10 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............63 64 71 76 80 82 RH..............90 87 63 48 38 33 20 FT WIND......N 6 N 6 N 7 N 7 N 7 N 7 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 SMOKE DISP......0 200 400 800 1500 1300 $$ FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20120723.RAYRA.01/APX